The case of Economists expect more rate cuts from RBI gained attention on November 13 after experts predicted another possible repo rate cut in December. This expectation follows a sharp fall in CPI inflation, which dropped to 0.3% in October from 1.4% in September, the lowest level since 2011-12. Because food and drink prices fell sharply, households and farmers may see financial relief in the coming months.
Moreover, this drop in inflation is important for Punjab, where many farmers rely on bank loans for sowing and harvesting. A lower repo rate can make loans cheaper and ease pressure on farming costs. Crisil stated that CPI inflation may average around 2.5% this fiscal, far below last year’s 4.6%. They also highlighted strong food supplies, lower crude oil prices, and GST rate cuts as key reasons behind the decline.
Additionally, Punjab continues to play a major role in India’s agriculture by supplying large amounts of wheat and rice to the Food Corporation of India. In cities like Chandigarh, steady economic growth has helped families manage rising costs. However, some GST-related items did not reflect complete price drops in October, which suggests that inflation may soften even further in November.
Furthermore, early projections show CPI for November tracking around 0.9%, with more reductions possible. By FY2026, CPI may fall below 2%. If this happens, the RBI may consider a 50-basis-point rate cut, since their previous forecast was 2.6%. Emkay Global Financial Services also noted repeated gaps in RBI’s inflation projections, raising questions about traditional forecasting methods.
Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA, believes the RBI may further reduce its FY2026 inflation outlook. Food prices continue to fall, and GST changes are also easing inflation. These trends matter for cities like Mohali, where food takes up a large share of monthly budgets. When food becomes cheaper, families can save more and use their money for other needs.
In addition, Nayar said that strong GDP growth in Q2 FY26 may affect the interest-rate decision. The RBI could choose a smaller 25-basis-point cut in December if the economy stays stable. Farmers, businesses, and families in Punjab are watching closely, since interest rates shape loan costs, crop choices, and day-to-day spending.
As the December MPC meeting gets nearer, analysts believe the RBI will study both low inflation and steady economic growth. More rate cuts may help businesses grow, reduce borrowing pressure, and make daily expenses easier for households. Because of this, many expect the trend of Economists expect more rate cuts from RBI to stay in focus over the next few months.
